Korea...what's next?

I can't help but think that there is something truly fishy about the recent large explosion in North Korea. North Korean officials are now claiming the explosion was planned and intentional, as part of a construction project, but the site is where North Korea has a munitions operation. Some analysts think this site is where North Korea would store at least some of their nuclear weapons, assuming they have them. We will probably learn more about this in coming days, but may never learn the whole truth. One distinct possibility is that this did involve North Korea's nuclear weapons - and that someone managed to attack the facility with a large bomb. No one involved would likely be interested in spreading the truth about that one - North Korean or her enemies - but we will likely see evidence in other arenas if this, indeed happened. If North Korea substantially changes her stance toward the West in the next few months, I would look for clues about the relationship between this mysterious blast and the North's negotiating position. If the North gets more belligerent, something about the blast may have improved their position - and the opposite, if they become less belligerent.

In discussing this, someone asked "Who would win - North or South Korea?"

This is an easy one. A N/S war would be terrible, partly because it would be difficult to prevent the North from killing a lot of people in Seoul. That being said, North Korea would depend heavily upon support from the PRC. This is effectively countered by US support of South Korea, but that effectively means a Korean war would either become a Sino-US war or the two would have to duke it out themselves. A Sino-US war would be much worse than a Korean war, as it would have significantly worse effects on the global economy. China has far more to lose on that score at the moment, because almost all Chinese economic growth is driven by export.
Were the Koreans left to their own devices, it would probably play out like the US Civil War in reverse. The South has the industrial might and the technology, and would likely win as a result.

Airlines...

Reading about the airlines being in trouble today reminds me of a few sad things about the industry.

It's amazing to me how consistently stupid airline management has been over the past 10 years. When everyone competes for the same customer, using the same strategy, there can only be one winner...the absolute cheapest airline. None of the majors besides Southwest has a ghost of a chance of winning that game...but they insist on playing it.Maybe some of the more distressed airlines will start offering something besides air travel that sucks. Charge a little bit more for it and bingo, you can stop worrying about squeezing another penny per ASM out of your already skeletal operations.If you look closely at who is making the most money right now, you will see that (other than Southwest, the clear cheapo flying that sucks winner), the airlines that are working on adding value to their service AND charging just a little more for it are the ones that are on top. This is because there are only THREE things that will create airline profitability right now: 1) Being the absolute cheapest (that one is taken), 2) Dominating a good hub and charging the hell out of the customers in that city (Northwest is good at this) and 3) Creating strong customer preference (Midwest Express).

Welcome

I've been writing this and that about business strategy for some time...sometimes in newsgroups, sometimes on Yahoo message boards, and sometimes in the Center for Simplified Strategic Planning newsletter. I've decided to put some of my shorter stuff-mostly responses to current news articles - up here. If you would like to learn more about the Center for Simplified Strategic Planning, and what I actually do for a living, please visit www.cssp.com.